2010 Elections, Political News

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is set to go up with its first TV ad in Illinois, where state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) is locked in a tight race against Rep. Mark Kirk (R) for the seat formerly held by President Barack Obama. The ad will begin airing Monday and is expected to run for at least a week. The DSCC placed a quarter million dollar independent expenditure broadcast buy in the Chicago media market on Friday, according to a Republican source who tracks Democratic ad buys. The latest polls from Illinois show a very close race between Kirk and Giannoulias in what has long been considered a key Senate battleground this cycle. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has yet to spend any IE money on the race, but it has announced plans to move $3.4 million to Kirk in the form of coordinated funds. Unlike independent expenditures, coordinated funds are limited and $3.4 million is the maximum that the Senate committees can spend in Illinois this cycle.

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DSCC Set to Air Ads In Illinois Next Week

Four consecutive polls, including a survey released recently by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, have shown Washington Sen. Patty Murray ahead of Republican Dino Rossi. All four also found the Washington Democrat taking at least 50 percent of the vote, a key metric for incumbents. The latest poll came from Rasmussen Reports , which found Murray ahead 51 percent to 46 percent. The survey of 750 likely voters was taken on Sept. 14 and had a 4-point margin of error. Previously, Elway Research, a Seattle-based firm, had Murray up 9 points. So did a recent CNN/Time poll. The poll done for the DSCC found Murray up 50 percent to 45 percent. While Murray is ahead, Rossi is certainly within striking distance with 46 days left in the campaign. Both national party committees have reserved at least $2 million in TV time in the state, signaling the competitiveness of the race. However, either could pull their money at any time if the race appears to be tilting heavily in one direction.

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Washington: Fourth Poll Shows Murray Ahead

New details about the specific targets of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s television ad buys are emerging. Just days after news broke that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee would reduce its ad buy in the media market that covers Democratic Rep. Chris Carney’s 10th district in northeast Pennsylvania, a party source confirmed that the NRCC has decided to devote $595,000 to the district for ads that will run throughout the month of October. Carney is facing former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino (R) in a contest that the GOP is growing increasingly optimistic about. The district was not included on the NRCC’s original independent expenditure target list that was released last month. Another district that wasn’t included on that list was the open seat in New Hampshire. But the NRCC has now laid down $1 million for air time in the 2nd district during the last three weeks of October. The DCCC has already signaled it’s intention to play in the contest where Democrat Ann Kuster hopes to replace Rep. Paul Hodes (D). Next door, in the battleground 1st district of Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, the NRCC has also laid down $1 million down for commercial air time. The NRCC is going in big in two highly competitive seats in the Orlando media market as well. The committee is devoting $817,000 for air time against Rep. Alan Grayson (D) and another $817,000 for ads against Suzanne Kosmas (D). Those ads will air throughout the month of October. In Virginia, the NRCC is extending its ad buy against Rep. Rick Boucher (D) in the 9th district. The ads, which were set to begin tomorrow and run for a week, are now set to air through October 14. The committee has now spent a total of $342,000 in the district. Other reports out Thursday indicate that the NRCC has purchased $900,000 in air time in the Portland media market to aid state Rep. Jaime Herrera (R) in her race against Rep. Denny Heck (D). Those ads will run Sept. 24 to Oct 21. The committee is also laid down $300,000 in New Mexico’s 1st district to aide Republican Jon Barela (R) against Rep. Martin Heinrich. The Committee’s independent expenditure arm is currently running ads in 11 districts with the Virginia ad and another ad in North Carolina’s 7th district set to begin tomorrow.

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NRCC Ad Buy Strategy Takes Shape

The conservative American Future Fund launched TV ads in seven more House districts today, bringing them on the air in 14 districts across the U.S. The total ad buy cost $2.3 million, according to the group’s founder, bringing the 14-district ad reservation to $4 million. “AFF enters the fray where issues of national importance are most highlighted – and that’s competitive areas around the country,” AFF founder Nick Ryan said in an e-mail. “Americans are appalled at the out of control spending and spiraling debt that the Congress continues to do with reckless abandon. Our focus is to highlight these issues and encourage Americans to stand up, be heard, and get active in stopping this liberal agenda.” The new districts are Alabama’s 2nd, where Rep. Bobby Bright (D) is running for reelection; Georgia’s 8th, where Rep. Jim Marshall (D) is running for reelection; Michigan’s 1st, where state Rep. Gary McDowell and surgeon Dan Benishek are fighting to replace retiring Rep. Bart Stupak; Michigan’s 7th, where former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) is again running against Rep. Mark Schauer (D); New Jersey’s 3rd, where Rep. John Adler (D) is running for reelection; South Carolina’s 5th, where Rep. John Spratt (D) is running for reelection; and West Virginia’s 1st, where Democrat Mike Oliverio and Republican David McKinley are running to replace Rep. Alan Mollohan, who lost in the primary. All are races where one or both House campaign committees have also reserved airtime. Each ad is similar, accusing the Democrat in the race of trying to trick voters and say he supported Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. In the ad being run against Schauer, for example, the narrator ticks off his votes for health care reform and higher energy taxes. “Don’t be tricked,” the female narrator concludes. “Magic can’t change his liberal record, but this November your vote can make Mark Schauer disappear.” AFF is still on the air in South Dakota, Texas’ 17th district, Washington’s 3rd district, New Mexico’s 1st district, Arkansas’ 1st district, Indiana’s 9th district and Mississippi’s 1st district. The group just went off the air in Iowa’s 1st district, a race that neither party is targeting, and in the New Hampshire Senate race.

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American Future Fund On the Air in Seven More Districts

Businessman Matt Doheny’s GOP primary victory Tuesday night sets Republicans up for a case of déjà vu in upstate New York’s 23rd district. Doheny led accountant Doug Hoffman 53 percent to 47 percent when the race was called with just over 93 percent reporting. But Hoffman holds the Conservative Party line and has promised to campaign through November. That would create the same scenario that helped Rep. Bill Owens (D) win last year’s special election against Hoffman and Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava. One difference from last fall is that Hoffman’s campaign hasn’t garnered the same enthusiasm it did from national conservatives, who poured nearly $2 million into the special election. Doheny, meanwhile, has vast personal resources. The National Republican Congressional Committee has talked up GOP chances in the 23rd district which, until Owens’ victory, had been in GOP hands since the 19th century. But the NRCC has yet to reserve air time for TV ads in the district. Owens had over $1 million in the bank as of mid-summer and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already reserved over $900,000 for TV ads in media markets that cover the 23rd district.

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Doheny Win Sets Up Three-Way Race in N.Y. 23

With his victory in Tuesday’s primary, roofing contractor Reid Ribble will be the Republican nominee against Rep. Steve Kagen (D) in the northeastern Wisconsin 8th district this fall. He defeated state Rep. Roger Roth and former state Rep. Terri McCormick . With 63 percent of precincts reporting, Ribble had 50 percent of the vote to Roth’s 29 percent and McCormick’s 18 percent. Ribble has already been named to the lowest tier of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Young Guns program and the NRCC is expected to target the race this fall. Kagen narrowly won an open seat race in 2006, when Republican Rep. Mark Green left to run for governor. In a tougher environment for incumbents and Democrats, Kagen may struggle against the Republican nominee. An American Action Forum poll taken about a month before the primary showed Ribble ahead of Kagen by 10 points. CQ Politics currently rates this race Leans Democratic .

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Wisconsin: Ribble to Face Kagen

Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) easily beat back a well-funded primary challenge from hedge fund attorney Reshma Saujani to secure the her party’s nomination to a 10th term this fall. Maloney led 81 percent 19 percent with just 35 percent reporting when the Associated Press called the race. While most everyone in her party was busy blaming Wall Street for the country’s economic troubles this year, Saujani ran on a pro-financial industry platform which helped her gain traction with many wealty voters who actually work in downtown Manhattan and live in the East Side-based 14th district. Saujani, a former fundraiser for Hillary Clinton, pulled in over $1.4 million for her campaign and forced the Congresswoman to spend $2 million in what became a nasty primary fight. Late in the campaign former President Bill Clinton stepped in to endorse the Congresswoman. Maloney should cruise to victory in November but she may want to keep an eye further down the road to 2012 because Saujani is already making noise about another Congressional run.

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N.Y.: Maloney Cruises to Victory Against Well-Funded Foe

In one of the few seats likely to flip to the Democratic column in November, conservative real-estate developer Glen Urquhart holds a razor-thin lead over Michele Rollins for the Republican nomination in the contest to replace Rep. Mike Castle (R) in November. With all precincts reporting, the Associated Press reports that Urquhart leads Rollins 48.6 percent to 47.7 percent. Officially, the AP has not called the race. Either candidate will start as an underdog against Democratic candidate, former Lt. Gov. John Carney, although the local GOP establishment largely believes Rollins is the stronger candidate.

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Delaware GOP House Race Too Close to Call

In the race to replace retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt in southeastern Massachusetts’ crowded 10th district, state Rep. Jeff Perry defeated former state treasurer Joe Malone in Tuesday’s GOP primary. According to the Associated Press, Perry had 63 percent to 29 percent for Malone, with 58 percent of precincts reporting. Republicans are targeting the seat — in a region overwhelmingly carried by Sen. Scott P. Brown (R) in the January special election — as a possible pickup in the heavily Democratic Bay State. Expect the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — which has already reserved TV time in the Boston market — to come out swinging against Perry now that he is the nominee. In the general election, Perry will face off against Norfolk District Attorney William Keating, who defeated state Sen. Robert O’Leary 54 to 46 percent with 86 percent of precincts reporting in the Democratic primary, according to the Associated Press. Elsewhere, in the suburban Boston 9th district, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) beat back an aggressive challenge from Mac D’Alessandro, who had the endorsement of the Boston Globe and was the beneficiary of roughly $250,000 in independent expenditures by his former employer, the Service Employees International Union. Lynch had 65 percent and D’Alessandro had 35 percent, with 44 percent of districts reporting. “Mac D’Alessando may have come up short in his campaign but his impressive result proves that when you stand up for your beliefs you will never stand alone,” SEIU Massachusetts State Council President Mike Grunko said in a statement.

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Lynch Wins Handily, Perry Nabs GOP Nod in Open Seat in Mass.

Christine O’Donnell and the Tea Party Express shocked the Republican establishment in Washington and Delaware alike Tuesday night, winning the First State’s GOP Senate primary and effectively ensuring the seat will remain in Democratic hands come November. The Associated Press called the race just after 9 p.m. for O’Donnell, who earned 54 percent of the vote compared to 46 percent for Rep. Mike Castle, with 85 percent of precincts reporting. O’Donnell’s victory almost certainly hands the general election to New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D). Republicans don’t plan to spend money to contest the race with O’Donnell claiming the nomination, because they do not view her as a viable candidate who can appeal to the broader electorate. Had he survived the primary, Castle, a former governor and longtime Congressman, would have been the frontrunner to defeat Coons. The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a one sentence statement in reaction to O’Donnell’s victory. “We congratulate Christine O’Donnell for her nomination this evening after a hard-fought primary campaign in Delaware,” said NRSC Executive Director Rob Jesmer. — Steve Peoples

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O’Donnell Defeats Castle in Delaware