2010 Elections, Political News

The day after an independent poll showed Rep. Christopher Carney (D) trailing his Republican challenger, the Carney campaign released internal polling that paints a far different picture of the race in Pennsylvania’s 10 district. Carney, a Blue Dog Democrat elected in 2006 in a conservative district, led former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino by 7 points — 48 percent to 41 percent — according to a survey of 400 likely voters conducted Oct. 12-13 by the Democratic firm Momentum Analysis. The margin of error was 4.9 points. And it comes among a steady stream of negative press regarding Marino’s departure from the U.S. Attorney’s office. “After weeks of mounting criticism of his tenure as US Attorney, Marino is increasingly unpopular,” Momentum Analysis pollster Margie Omero wrote in a polling memo. “He is better-known now (66 percent) than in our last poll in late September (54 percent). But to know Marino is not to like him, as he’s now more clearly unpopular (30 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable).” On Thursday, however, a poll compiled by the research firm Critical Insights of Portland, Maine, showed Marino with a 44 percent to 38 percent lead over Carney among likely voters.

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Carney Poll Shows Strong Lead in Pennsylvania

Republican state Sen. Randy Hultgren led Rep. Bill Foster by 6 points in a new poll taken for the Republican’s campaign. Foster won the seat in a March 2008 special election after former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) retired. The poll showed Hultgren with 44 percent of the vote and Foster with 38 percent. Sixteen percent of voters were undecided and 4 percent chose Green Party nominee Daniel Kairis . The Tarrance Group, a Republican firm, surveyed 400 likely voters Oct. 3-4, and the poll’s margin of error was 4.9 points. Neither the campaign nor the Tarrance Group released any other numbers from the poll. The poll showed a slight improvement for Hultgren over similar polls conducted for the campaign in May and September. Much has changed in the race in the last month. Foster went up on broadcast TV in late September in the expensive district directly west of Chicago, and the National Association of Realtors and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are airing cable ads on his behalf. The Democrat’s campaign accused Hultgren’s investment firm of profiting off the federal bailout in an ad. Both Hultgren and the National Republican Congressional Committee are airing ads on cable. The two candidates have tangled over campaign donations. CQ-Roll Call rates this race a Tossup .

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Hultgren Poll Shows Him Leading Foster in Hastert’s Old Seat

So far, so good for Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s up-hill write-in bid for re-election, according to a new CNN/Time poll. Joe Miller (R) takes 38 percent, Murkowski 36 percent and Scott McAdams 22 percent, among the 927 likely voters polled. Murkowski is trying to win November’s general election even though she lost the August Republican primary. Her supporters in the poll include “nearly four in ten” Democrats, according to CNN polling director Keating Holland, who called that “an indication that a lot of Democrats are more interested in defeating Miller than they are in electing a member of their own party.” The poll was conducted Sept. 24-28 and had a 3-point margin of error.

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Alaska: Miller, Murkowski Running Even

Rep. Chris Carne y (D) released an internal poll Monday morning that shows an 8-point advantage — 46 percent to 38 percent — over GOP challenger Tom Marino in Pennsylvania’s 10th district. The poll was released a day after The Times Leader, of Wilkes-Barre, published the results of a separate survey that gave Marino, former U.S. attorney who has struggled to raise money, a 4-point lead: 40 percent to 36 percent, with 24 percent undecided. Both polls were conducted last week. The Carney campaign used the Democratic polling firm Momentum Analysis, which surveyed 400 likely voters from Sept. 23 to 25 and included a 4.9 percent margin of error. The Times Leader poll, meanwhile, was conducted by Critical Insights, a research firm based in Portland, Maine, which surveyed 197 likely voters Sept. 22 and 23 with a 6.7 percent margin of error. Regardless of which poll may be more accurate, it’s clear that Carney, a sophomore Democratic Congressman serving a Republican district, is fighting for his political life. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shifted resources away from the race earlier in the month. But the Carney internal poll is cause for optimism, according to the incumbent’s spokesman Josh Drobnyk. “We’re pleased to see the enthusiasm and momentum that we are feeling all throughout the District for Congressman Carney’s campaign illustrated in this poll,” he said. “It has become increasingly evident that voters throughout the district want someone with honor and integrity representing them, not a candidate like Tom Marino, whose lack of ethics and overall incompetence we learn more about every day.” The Marino campaign, meanwhile, had this to say: “Every independent survey taken up to this point shows Tom Marino with a lead. The fact that Chris Carney, who is an incumbent — even if you believe his internal numbers to be accurate — is below 50 percent shows that he’s clearly in trouble in this district,” said spokesman Jason Fitzgerald. “This is actually good news for us.”

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Dueling Polls Released as Carney Looks Over Shoulder

The race to replace retiring Rep. Bart Stupak is essentially tied, according to a poll taken earlier this week for Democratic state Rep. Gary McDowell’s campaign. The poll showed surgeon Dan Benishek (R) ahead of McDowell 41 percent to 38 percent. Third party candidate Glenn Wilson got 12 percent, and nine percent were undecided. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner surveyed 505 likely voters Sept. 21-22, controlling for the district’s large geographical spread over 31 counties. The poll had a margin of error of 4.4 points. “I think that this race is clearly starting to take shape right now, and as more people get introduced to Gary McDowell they’re seeing that Gary McDowell is the best Representative for this district,” said McDowell campaign manager Daniel Krupnick. The district has been a battleground for both parties since Benishek narrowly defeated state Sen. Jason Allen in the July 27 Republican primary. A number of outside groups have been involved in the race. Both House campaign committees, the American Future Fund and Americans for Prosperity have all run ads in the district already. Benishek released an internal poll earlier in the month that showed him leading McDowell. In a four-way race including Wilson and Lonnie Lee Snyder, who has since been removed from the ballot, Benishek led McDowell, 39 percent to 25 percent. In a two-way test, though, he led 54 percent to 31 percent. The TargetPoint Consulting survey of 406 likely voters had a margin of error of 5.7 points. It was taken Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 before much of the advertising began. CQ-Roll Call rates this race a Tossup .

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Michigan: McDowell Poll Shows a Tied Race

A new OnMessage, Inc. poll conducted for Republican Bill Flores’ campaign shows him ahead of Rep. Chet Edwards , 55 percent to 36 percent. The poll of 400 likely voters was taken Sept. 19-20 and had a margin of error of 4.9 points. Flores said he was particularly pleased with the way independent voters are turning. “That group of people was always the group that Chet Edwards was able to attract to vote for him, but now they’re seeing past the way he describes himself, and they determined he’s not really independent, that he is a Pelosi Democrat,” he said in a conference call with reporters. Both campaigns were up on the air with advertising at the time the poll was taken, as was the National Republican Congressional Committee. Wes Anderson from OnMessage said the poll is consistent with findings that showed Flores with a significant lead earlier in the year. He attributed the lead to voters seeing, but not buying, attacks on Flores and to the national mood. “More than anything else, it is the national wave,” Anderson said, “including the messaging that Congress is broken and is spending us into oblivion and taxing us into oblivion, and we’re sick of it.” The American Future Fund, a conservative 501(c)4, unveiled a new ad in the district on Thursday. Entitled “Fork in the Road,” the ad ties Edwards to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.). The ad is airing on network in Waco and on cable in Dallas-Fort Worth, according to the group’s founder, Nick Ryan. CQ-Roll Call rates this race Leans Republican .

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Texas: Flores Poll Shows Edwards Down by 19 Points

Rep. Scott Murphy (D) would easily defeat Republican challenger Chris Gibson if the election in upstate New York’s 20th district were held today, according to a Siena College Research Institute poll released Friday morning. Murphy earned the support of 54 percent of likely voters in this swing district, while Gibson, an Army veteran, garnered 37 percent, based on a survey of 603 likely voters taken Sept. 12-14. The poll had a 4-point margin of error. That’s despite what the pollster calls “a sizable enrollment edge” for Republicans in a district that President George W. Bush won by 8 and 7 points in 2000 and 2004 respectively. However, President Barack Obama carried the district by 3 points in 2008. Murphy won this seat by a little more than 700 votes in a 2009 special election to replace now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D).

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Poll: Murphy Has Large Lead Over Gibson in N.Y.

GOP hopeful Pat Toomey holds an 8-point lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in the battle for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat, according to polling released Wednesday morning by Rasmussen Reports. Toomey, a Republican activist and former congressman, leads 49 percent to Sestak’s 41 percent among 500 likely voters questioned Sept. 13; the margin of error was 4 points. That’s a slightly larger lead than the 48-42 race reported by Rasmussen late last month. And the poll shows Toomey with the support of nearly 50 percent of the electorate, his best showing to date. The data suggests that President Obama may be a drag on Sestak. While he won Pennsylvania with 55 of the vote, just 47 percent of respondents approved of his overall job performance in the new poll; 51 percent disapproved, a slight improvement. But Toomey also enjoys better favorables than his Democratic opponent. Fifty-seven percent of Pennsylvania voters view the GOP pick as favorable, while 33 percent view him unfavorably. Sestak, meanwhile, enjoys a favorable-unfavorable rating of 47-42 respectively.

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Poll: Toomey widens lead in PA Senate contest

Rep. Leonard Boswell led his Republican challenger by 9 points in a poll taken Aug. 31 to Sept. 3. Conducted for the conservative American Future Fund, the Voter/Consumer Research poll found 48 percent of respondents preferred Boswell, while 39 percent chose Republican state Sen. Brad Zaun . Three hundred people were surveyed, and the poll had a margin of error of 3.6 points. “Polls are always just a snapshot of a race, but what makes this poll different is it was commissioned and released by a conservative group known for doing hatchet jobs on Democrats in Iowa and across the country,” Boswell campaign manager Grant Woodard said in a statement. “It also shows that more and more Iowans are choosing Congressman Boswell as they learn about Zaun’s character and lack of solutions for our state and our country.” Boswell’s re-elect numbers weren’t as favorable: Only 42 percent of respondents thought he deserved re-election; 49 percent thought it was time for a change. The AFF also surveyed the 1st and 2nd districts. In those races both Democratic incumbents were leading their Republican challengers, too. Rep. Bruce Braley led Republican Ben Lange 50 percent to 39 percent, and Rep. Dave Loebsack led Mariannette Miller Meeks 47 percent to 39 percent. Boswell’s race is the most competitive in Iowa this cycle. CQ Politics rates it Leans Democratic .

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Iowa: Boswell Leads Zaun in New Poll

To the Democrats who expressed disappointment in Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for his stance on the Islamic center proposed for lower Manhattan, the response comes today in the form of a poll conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and the local TV station 8NewsNow. Reid’s position puts him in step with a clear majority of likely Nevada voters surveyed by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Here are the numbers, as reported by the Review-Journal : Oppose the project: 59 percent. Support the project: 26 percent. Undecided: 15 percent. Sample size: 625 registered likely Nevada voters. Dates int he field: Monday through Wednesday. Margin of error: 4 percentage points.

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Poll: Reid’s Nevada Constituents Oppose Manhattan Islamic Center