2010 Elections, Political News

The National Republican Congressional Committee will expand its Young Guns list of top recruits for a sixth time Thursday as Republicans try again to expand the House playing field with less than seven weeks to go before Election Day. Eighteen GOP candidates are set to be promoted to Young Guns status, bringing the total number to 75. The committee has not ruled out expanding the list further before Nov. 2. The latest additions include Republicans who won competitive primaries Tuesday in races that have long been considered GOP targets for the fall, including Randy Altschuler in New York’s 1st district, Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta in New Hampshire’s 1st district and former Rep. Charlie Bass in New Hampshire’s 2nd district. But the list also includes several candidates in races that haven’t been considered competitive until recently. They include Republicans Ryan Frazier in Colorado’s 7th district, state Rep. Scott Tipton in Colorado’s 3rd district, state Rep. Mike Keown in Georgia’s 2nd district, state Rep. Austin Scott in Georgia’s 8th district and sportscaster Harold Johnson in North Carolina’s 8th district. Other Republicans who will achieve Young Guns status Thursday are Randy Demmer in Minnesota’s 1st district, Bob Gibbs in Ohio’s 18th district, Vicky Hartzler in Missouri’s 4th district, Dan Kapanke in Wisconsin’s 3rd district, Spike Maynard in West Virginia’s 3rd district, Jeff Miller in North Carolina’s 11th disrict, Ilario Pantano in North Carolina’s 7th district, Reid Ribble in Wisconsin’s 8th district, Bobby Schilling in Illinois 17th district and Van Tran in California’s 47th district. The Young Guns system ranks candidates in three levels: “On the Radar,” “Contender” and, finally, “Young Guns.” Candidates are named to the program by meeting individualized benchmarks set by the committee, which include developing grass-roots support, fundraising and creating a media plan. Being named a Young Gun qualifies a candidate for the highest level of support from the committee, although not every Young Gun has received the most coveted prize: television advertising buys in their district. The NRCC has bought or reserved television air time in 47 districts so far this cycle, but that list is expected to expand.

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NRCC to Add 18 New Young Guns Thursday

Compare your midterm predictions with the experts — and the crowd. The experts of the CQ-Roll Call Politics team and Stu Rothenberg , editor of The Rothenberg Political Report , offer their takes on who will win congressional races in November. What’s yours? Rate the races as safe for Democrats, safe for Republicans or somewhere in between. Let’s see how you match up with the experts on Election Day. Craig to talk about midterms on CNN “Rick’s List Tonight 8:00 PM ET and Tomorrow (9/16) 3:00 PM ET

Democrat Jeff Barnett is taking on 15-term Rep. Frank Wolf in Virginia’s 10th district. While the race is not expected to be competitive, Barnett sought to drum up support — and media attention — by walking the 80-mile district in six days. The Wolf campaign says it has left no stone unturned this election. “It’s [Barnett's] prerogative to do whatever he can do to get attention,” said Dan Scandling, spokesman for the Wolf campaign. “He’s going to run his race and we’re going to run ours like we’re 10 points behind, which means meeting with constituents, small businesses and rotary clubs in every corner of the district.” CQ-Politics followed Barnett on the first leg of his walk to see how he fared in the Republican stronghold. You can watch other political videos from the trail and meet candidates from the 2010 cycle by clicking here .

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Video: The Long Shot’s Long Walk

Republican challenger Ron Johnson raised more money in July and August than Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold (D), according to pre-primary figures released by the two campaigns on Thursday. Johnson announced on Thursday he collected $1.2 million from donors from July 1 to Aug. 25, nearly $300,000 more than Feingold’s $920,000 haul. Johnson loaned his campaign an additional $2.9 million out of his own pocket, bringing his total raised in the pre-primary period to $4.1 million. Also during the period Johnson spent more than $3.4 million, while Feingold doled out over $2.1 million. At the end of the pre-primary reporting period on Aug. 25, Johnson had about $1.6 million left in the bank while Feingold showed about $3.1 million. The new reports revealed that Johnson’s personal spending on his campaign had reached about $4.4 million as of Aug. 25. “The people of Wisconsin are unhappy with the direction our country is headed and they are making an investment in Ron Johnson’s campaign because they understand that he will go to Washington to change that,” Johnson campaign manager Juston Johnson said. Feingold began July with a significant cash advantage as he had $4.3 million in the bank while Johnson started the quarter with $940,000 on hand. “Senator Feingold’s campaign continues to be funded by grassroots supporters in every corner of the state,” Feingold senior adviser John Kraus said. “While Ron Johnson is trying hard to buy the election, we continue working hard to win it with the support of people across the state.” Feingold is unopposed in the Sept. 14 primary, while Johnson is favored to win the nomination over Dave Westlake and Stephen Finn.

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Wisconsin: Johnson Outraises Feingold in Pre-Primary Period

As Republicans continue to hold out hope that North Carolina’s 11th district will develop into a sleeper race this fall, Rep. Heath Shuler (D) is set to go up with his first major ad buy of the election on Tuesday. The district wide cable and broadcast buy is estimated to be in the high five figures, according to a Democratic source, which goes a long way in the relatively cheap Asheville media market. Now that Shuler is going up on the air the source said he’s expected to stay up through Election Day. Shuler certainly has the money to fund it. He had over $1.4 million in his campaign account as of his latest Federal Election Commission report. Meanwhile, Republican Jeff Miller has yet to prove himself a strong fundraiser. Although he won the primary in May, Miller had less than $70,000 on hand at the end of June, which may be one reason the National Republican Congressional Committee has yet to commit to spending money on ads in the district this fall.

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Shuler to Begin Airing First TV Ads Tuesday

A new poll in Colorado’s 7th district indicates the Democratic-leaning district may be more competitive than previously believed. The survey, conducted by GOP firm Magellan Strategies, finds Republican Ryan Frazier taking 40 percent and statistically tied with Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter, who received 39 percent of the vote. The poll of 830 likely voters was taken on Aug. 26 with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. The firm has conducted polling for the Frazier campaign in the past, but this poll was commissioned by a “private client.” Among unaffiliated voters, Frazier leads 37 percent to 27 percent, with 20 percent undecided. Overall, 11 percent of voters remain undecided with Election Day now just more than two months away. The 7th district was created in 2002 and encompasses much of the inner Denver suburbs. It was held by a Republican for the first two terms of its existence until Perlmutter ran for and won the open seat in 2006. President Barack Obama won the district by 19 points in the 2008 election.

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Frazier Pulls Even In New CO-7 Poll

With less than two and a half months until Election Day, the Federal Election Commission rewrote the regulatory language on how outside groups can spend money on election advertisements, voter registration drives and get-out-the-vote activity. The long-anticipated changes of the rules came in response to a decision by the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in Shays v. FEC more than two years ago. The new regulations approved Thursday created a new standard for determining when communications are coordinated. This new definition – which would fall under the soft money ban – would only apply to entities that make in-kind contributions or provide services to a federal candidate during the four months before an election. The commission also unanimously agreed to new rules to change the definition of “federal election activity” to include voter registration and get out the vote efforts. These changes put these activities under funding restrictions of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act if they are conducted “120 days before the date a regularly scheduled Federal election is held.” — Alex Knott

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FEC Finally Agrees On What’s OK Under Court Ruling

Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and his Republican challenger Sharron Angle have released another round of TV ads in their spirited duel. Reid continues to define his opponent as too extreme for the state, and again uses Angle’s own words against her. It’s a strategy Democrats are using against Republican candidates in other states as well. The Reid campaign says the ad will be added to its rotation of statewide spots. Meanwhile, Angle ties the Senate Majority Leader to unpopular Washington, and includes him as part of a triumvirate with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Barack Obama. It closes with a picture of Reid and Pelosi embracing. “Together they promised to change America, and boy did they,” the announcer says. CQ-Roll rates the general election race a Tossup . Check out the ratings for other races with our election map .

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New Negative Ads For Reid, Angle

Congressional candidates might be able to get a jump-start any potential recounts well before the polls open. The Federal Election Commission today released a draft opinion that would allow campaigns to spend money for recount-related costs at any time before or after the election. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee requested the FEC’s opinion to find out if it could use recount funds to retain attorneys, pay staff, do research and defray the costs of soliciting donations to the recount fund. The opinion could be approved tomorrow, when the agency is slated to hold its regularly scheduled open meeting.

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FEC May Allow Early Recount Spending By Campaigns

If you’ve ever browsed our House and Senate election maps, you’ve seen who the CQ-Roll Call Politics team thinks is likely to win and lose on Election Day. Now you can compare how your predictions stack up to ours and to the ratings of Stu Rothenberg, editor of The Rothenberg Political Report . Rate the races as safe for Democrats, safe for Republicans or somewhere in between, then tell us what you think of crowdsourced prognostication.

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You Rate The Races