2010 Elections, Political News

Four consecutive polls, including a survey released recently by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, have shown Washington Sen. Patty Murray ahead of Republican Dino Rossi. All four also found the Washington Democrat taking at least 50 percent of the vote, a key metric for incumbents. The latest poll came from Rasmussen Reports , which found Murray ahead 51 percent to 46 percent. The survey of 750 likely voters was taken on Sept. 14 and had a 4-point margin of error. Previously, Elway Research, a Seattle-based firm, had Murray up 9 points. So did a recent CNN/Time poll. The poll done for the DSCC found Murray up 50 percent to 45 percent. While Murray is ahead, Rossi is certainly within striking distance with 46 days left in the campaign. Both national party committees have reserved at least $2 million in TV time in the state, signaling the competitiveness of the race. However, either could pull their money at any time if the race appears to be tilting heavily in one direction.

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Washington: Fourth Poll Shows Murray Ahead

As a college kid working in his White House, I saw what he’s talking about.

New details about the specific targets of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s television ad buys are emerging. Just days after news broke that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee would reduce its ad buy in the media market that covers Democratic Rep. Chris Carney’s 10th district in northeast Pennsylvania, a party source confirmed that the NRCC has decided to devote $595,000 to the district for ads that will run throughout the month of October. Carney is facing former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino (R) in a contest that the GOP is growing increasingly optimistic about. The district was not included on the NRCC’s original independent expenditure target list that was released last month. Another district that wasn’t included on that list was the open seat in New Hampshire. But the NRCC has now laid down $1 million for air time in the 2nd district during the last three weeks of October. The DCCC has already signaled it’s intention to play in the contest where Democrat Ann Kuster hopes to replace Rep. Paul Hodes (D). Next door, in the battleground 1st district of Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, the NRCC has also laid down $1 million down for commercial air time. The NRCC is going in big in two highly competitive seats in the Orlando media market as well. The committee is devoting $817,000 for air time against Rep. Alan Grayson (D) and another $817,000 for ads against Suzanne Kosmas (D). Those ads will air throughout the month of October. In Virginia, the NRCC is extending its ad buy against Rep. Rick Boucher (D) in the 9th district. The ads, which were set to begin tomorrow and run for a week, are now set to air through October 14. The committee has now spent a total of $342,000 in the district. Other reports out Thursday indicate that the NRCC has purchased $900,000 in air time in the Portland media market to aid state Rep. Jaime Herrera (R) in her race against Rep. Denny Heck (D). Those ads will run Sept. 24 to Oct 21. The committee is also laid down $300,000 in New Mexico’s 1st district to aide Republican Jon Barela (R) against Rep. Martin Heinrich. The Committee’s independent expenditure arm is currently running ads in 11 districts with the Virginia ad and another ad in North Carolina’s 7th district set to begin tomorrow.

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NRCC Ad Buy Strategy Takes Shape

Rep. John Boozman (R) holds a commanding 17 point lead over Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) with less than two months to go before election day, according to a new poll commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau. The survey, which was in the field Sept. 12-14, showed Boozman at 51 percent to Lincoln’s 34 percent with 11 percent undecided. The poll of 625 likely voters was conducted by Mason Dixon Polling & Research and had a 4-point margin of error. The results of Mason Dixon’s latest poll mirror a May survey, also commissioned by the news outlet, which also showed Boozman up 17 points. In that poll Boozman lead the Senator 52 percent to 35 percent. In a testament to just how steep the Democratic Senator’s path to victory is in a very conservative state in a very Republican year, the 17 point difference in the Mason Dixon survey is actually the closest she’s come to Boozman in months. Several public polls from over the summer put the Congressman up anywhere from 19 to 31 points.

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Boozman Up 17 on Lincoln

If endorsements are any indication, Missouri groups are finding a lot to like in both Rep. Ike Skelton and his opponent, former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler. This week, Missouri Right to Life endorsed both candidates after having endorsed Skelton in the past. And while Skelton received the Friends of Farm Bureau award given to Members of Congress, Hartzler received the Missouri Farm Bureau endorsement. Skelton, who was first elected in 1976, has left nothing to chance in what could be his first competitive race in decades. He has run four ads in the Columbia-Jefferson City and Springfield markets and began running an ad in the Kansas City market last week, too. The newest ad accuses his Republican opponent, former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler, of neglecting veterans. “When it comes to Vicky Hartzler’s views on the military and veterans, there’s a troubling pattern,” a narrator says. “Hartzler voted against reenlistment pay for the National Guard and voted against funding to help bury fallen Guardsmen.” Hartzler survived a tough primary in late July and got the endorsement of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in August. She went up with her first general election ad this week. It ties Skelton to Democratic policies. “What we value as Americans, what gave us such great opportunity and freedom, is under attack,” Hartzler says, and a narrator takes over. “Congressman Skelton’s solution? Radically wrong votes for taxpayer bailouts and government takeovers, record debt, higher job-killing taxes for families and slander Vicki Hartzler’s outstanding record in support of our troops.” CQ-Roll Call rates this race Leans Democratic .

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Missouri: Skelton, Hartzler Sharing Endorsements

GOP hopeful Pat Toomey holds an 8-point lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in the battle for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat, according to polling released Wednesday morning by Rasmussen Reports. Toomey, a Republican activist and former congressman, leads 49 percent to Sestak’s 41 percent among 500 likely voters questioned Sept. 13; the margin of error was 4 points. That’s a slightly larger lead than the 48-42 race reported by Rasmussen late last month. And the poll shows Toomey with the support of nearly 50 percent of the electorate, his best showing to date. The data suggests that President Obama may be a drag on Sestak. While he won Pennsylvania with 55 of the vote, just 47 percent of respondents approved of his overall job performance in the new poll; 51 percent disapproved, a slight improvement. But Toomey also enjoys better favorables than his Democratic opponent. Fifty-seven percent of Pennsylvania voters view the GOP pick as favorable, while 33 percent view him unfavorably. Sestak, meanwhile, enjoys a favorable-unfavorable rating of 47-42 respectively.

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Poll: Toomey widens lead in PA Senate contest

Roughly 11 hours after tea party-backed Christine O’Donnell shocked the Republican establishment in Delaware’s GOP Senate primary, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) promised to “stand by all of our Republican nominees, including Christine O’Donnell.” “I reached out to Christine this morning, and as I have conveyed to all of our nominees, I offered her my personal congratulations and let her know that she has our support,” Cornyn said in a statement. “This support includes a check for $42,000 – the maximum allowable donation that we have provided to all of our nominees – which the NRSC will send to her campaign today.” It was widely reported late Tuesday night that the NRSC would largely ignore O’Donnell, who is thought to have little appeal to the independents and Democrats who dominate the First State’s political landscape. O’Donnell defeated establishment-backed Rep. Mike Castle, who was favored to win the Senate race in November had he become the Republican nominee. Cornyn did not rule out the possibility that the NRSC would make independent expenditures in the Delaware race, which is covered by the expensive Philadelphia media market. But he didn’t offer much cause for optimism for the cash-strapped O’Donnell campaign, which reported just over $20,000 in the bank as of Aug. 25. “We remain committed to holding Democrat nominee New Castle County Executive Chris Coons accountable this November, as we inform voters about his record of driving his county to the brink of bankruptcy and supporting his party’s reckless spending policies in Washington,” Cornyn said. “In the weeks ahead, we will decide where to best allocate additional financial resources among the large number of competitive races at stake this November. While it’s not in Republicans’ interest to advertise our spending strategy to our opponents, it’s worth noting that just yesterday, the NRSC’s first independent expenditure ad aired in support of Dr. Rand Paul’s campaign in Kentucky, where we firmly believe that he will win in November.” Public Policy Polling released a survey Wednesday morning that showed O’Donnell well behind in general election matchup, although the poll was conducted before her upset victory on Tuesday. Coons begins the contest with a 50 percent to 34 percent lead over Christine O’Donnell, the survey from the Democratic firm found. Meanwhile, Castle would have led Coons by a 45 percent to 35 percent margin, according to a survey of 958 likely Delaware voters taken Sept. 11 and 12. It’s worth noting that PPP is the same firm that released a poll that showed O’Donnell ahead of Castle in the days before Tuesday’s primary. The new survey found that O’Donnell is much better known but much less liked than Coons, with a 29 percent to 50 percent favorable/unfavorable rating to Coons’ 31 percent to 33 percent favorability rating. Forty percent of those polled said O’Donnell is too conservative and the poll found that 49 percent of respondents said O’Donnell not fit to hold public office. “A small group of Delaware Republicans most likely cost their party this seat and any chance at gaining control of the Senate last night,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “What has looked like an easy Republican win the entire cycle now looks like an easy one for the Democrats.”

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Delaware: Cornyn ‘Personally Stands By’ O’Donnell

NEW YORK (AP) — Embattled Rep. Charles Rangel prevailed in a crowded Democratic primary Tuesday, with voters in his New York City district signaling they are willing to stand by the 40-year House veteran despite more than a dozen ethics charges pending against him.

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NY Rep Rangel wins primary, despite ethics charges

Christine O’Donnell and the Tea Party Express shocked the GOP establishment in DC and Delaware alike Tuesday night, winning the First State’s GOP Senate primary . Will this effectively ensure the seat remains in Democratic hands come November? Tea Party Rage

Businessman Matt Doheny’s GOP primary victory Tuesday night sets Republicans up for a case of déjà vu in upstate New York’s 23rd district. Doheny led accountant Doug Hoffman 53 percent to 47 percent when the race was called with just over 93 percent reporting. But Hoffman holds the Conservative Party line and has promised to campaign through November. That would create the same scenario that helped Rep. Bill Owens (D) win last year’s special election against Hoffman and Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava. One difference from last fall is that Hoffman’s campaign hasn’t garnered the same enthusiasm it did from national conservatives, who poured nearly $2 million into the special election. Doheny, meanwhile, has vast personal resources. The National Republican Congressional Committee has talked up GOP chances in the 23rd district which, until Owens’ victory, had been in GOP hands since the 19th century. But the NRCC has yet to reserve air time for TV ads in the district. Owens had over $1 million in the bank as of mid-summer and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already reserved over $900,000 for TV ads in media markets that cover the 23rd district.

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Doheny Win Sets Up Three-Way Race in N.Y. 23