An Evolving Boko Haram Requires Careful Response
Boko Haram, the radical Islamist sect behind a recent surge of violence in Nigeria, launched a series of attacks Friday that left at least 185 people dead in Kano, the country’s second-largest city. The attacks struck multiple security buildings as well as the regional police headquarters, and were the deadliest yet by the militant organization. The group, which aims to overthrow the Nigerian government and impose Sharia law, has grown increasingly violent , with its August 2011 bombing of the United Nations building in Abuja, the capital, as well as its attacks on churches raising alarm among international observers. “Boko Haram is constantly evolving, in the way they carry out their attacks and in their tactics,” Elizabeth Donnelly , who manages the Africa program at Chatham House, told Trend Lines. “They have certainly grown in confidence over the past two years. . . . Kano is a major city in Nigeria, and so it is quite a statement to go in and carry out such a heavy attack.” The militant group, Donnelly said, has expanded from smaller acts of violence, mainly focused on police, to more devastating attacks that increasingly target Christians. “It is possible that Boko Haram is working to intensify and play out any existing religious tensions and divisions in Nigeria, because any weakening of that societal fabric would play to their advantage,” she explained. “If there is further communal violence in different areas of Nigeria, it will stretch the security services even further, which will make it easier for Boko Haram to operate.” Divisions along ethnic, regional and religious lines often erupt into violence in this country, where despite billions in oil revenues, most live on less than $2 a day . President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from the country’s south, first came to power in May 2010 after his northern Muslim predecessor, Umaru Yar’Adua, died unexpectedly. He has been criticized ever since for failing to contain the continuing violence. Founded in 2002, Boko Haram gained international attention in 2009, when Nigerian security forces seized the group’s headquarters and killed Mohammed Yusuf, the founder of the sect. Despite the setback, the militants regrouped under a new leader in 2010. “The police can’t really make any headway on this at the moment, and clearly they do feel very threatened,” Donnelly said. “The policy strategy in dealing with Boko Haram to date has been to attempt to crush the group. This has not worked, so quite possibly we will see a shift in strategy.” Alternative approaches could include starting a dialogue with Boko Haram or even offering the organization territory and limited autonomy. But Donnelly said that a lasting solution must include other reforms. While the recent attacks in Nigeria have distracted the government from addressing poverty and inequality, those are the very issues that fuel frustration and further violence. For example, in the poorer Muslim north, which lacks the oil wealth of Nigeria’s southern states, a growing population of unemployed, undereducated young people angry over government corruption may become ready recruits for groups like Boko Haram. Meanwhile, recent concerns over possible collaboration with al-Qaida affiliates , as well as concerns that Boko Haram may spread, led Nigeria to close its borders with Cameroon, Niger and Chad, and have focused international attention on putting an end to the violence. But Donnelly, responding to news that Nigeria may begin joint military operations with its regional partners, said any coordinated effort must be “carefully thought through.” “This is a complex group with complex politics,” she said. “This is not just a terrorist group here. It goes beyond that. And so any international engagement needs to be carefully nuanced.”
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An Evolving Boko Haram Requires Careful Response